SC Payroll Employment Rebounds

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Payroll employment in South Carolina rebounded in November, adding 4,200 jobs on net (0.2 percent), according to Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond officials.

The jobs gains were mainly concentrated in professional and business services, which added 4,400 jobs.

Richmond Fed officials said there were also notable job gains in leisure and hospitality (1,400 jobs) and government (1,200 jobs).

However, job gains were partially offset by job losses in the construction sector (1,200 jobs) and manufacturing (400 jobs), the officials said.

On a yearly basis, payroll employment grew by 62,000 jobs (2.6 percent). Annual job growth was led by education and health services (14,700 jobs), professional and business services (12,700 jobs) and government (12,200 jobs).

The unemployment rate in South Carolina was 4.8 percent, rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points in November, and up 1.8 percentage points from last year.

The labor force grew by 2,700 workers during the month and is up 2.6 percent on a yearly basis.

Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in December

Manufacturing activity remained in contractionary territory in December in the Fifth District, which includes South Carolina, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The composite manufacturing index ticked up slightly in December from November. Of its three component indexes, shipments and employment were relatively flat, while new orders improved.

The local business conditions index improved, while the index for future local business conditions continued its increase.

The future indexes for shipments and new orders also increased further into positive territory, suggesting that many firms expected improvements in the next six months.

The average growth rate of prices paid increased slightly in December, while the average growth rate of prices received decreased.

Firms expected an increase in growth of both prices paid and received over the next 12 months.

Robust Absorption Reflects New Demand Environment

Strong absorption outpaced deliveries in Q3 as the Greenville-Spartanburg multifamily market remains on the downward slope of a four-year building boom, boosting overall market occupancy above 89 percent for the first time since 2022, according to Colliers, the largest full-service commercial real estate firm in South Carolina.  

Echoing national trends, Colliers said new construction starts have dropped sharply as financing remains challenging and a majority of in-progress projects are expected to deliver in Q4.

Colliers said Spartanburg County is home to the most activity as robust employment growth supports demand for new housing development at rents affordable with the area’s median household income of $67,000.

Colliers said sales volume grew over an aberrantly quiet first half of 2024 to $143.9M in Q3 transactions focusing on older high-occupancy properties rather than the newly-stabilized properties characterizing sales in 2022 and 2023.

Asking rents remained effectively stable year-over-year at $1,316.

Colliers said total inventory increased to 80,208 units as new deliveries slowed to 555 units in Q3. Occupancy grew to 89.06 percent.

Colliers said the construction pipeline continued to slow from 8,016 two years ago to 3,741 units in progress.

U.S. Population Grows at Fastest Pace in More Than Two Decades

Following historically low growth at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. population grew substantially by almost 1 percent since 2023, outpacing average annual growth since 2000 and signaling a significant turnaround from the meager population gains at the start of this decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Census officials released July 1, 2024, population estimates for the nation and states.

The U.S. population reached 340.1 million, up 0.98 percent from 336.8 million on July 1, 2023 — the highest year-over-year increase since a jump of 0.99 percent between 2000 and 2001.

Since 2000, the nation has grown by almost 58 million, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.8 percent.

The most robust growth occurred between 2001 and 2008, fueled by changing migration trends and higher birth rates.

However, Census officials said  population trends have fluctuated over the past two decades, reflecting how major world and national events can influence population growth.

For instance, national security concerns immediately following 9/11 resulted in fewer migrants, slightly tempering population growth between 2001 and 2003, the officials said.

Similarly, they said the financial crisis which started in 2008, dubbed “The Great Recession,” impacted both fertility and immigration in the United States.

Between 2008 and 2009, births dipped by nearly 3 percent and net international migration fell almost 12 percent.

By the early 2010s, the pace of U.S. growth had begun to slow.

After a slight uptick in 2014-2015, population growth slowed again and 2016 ushered a new period of sluggish growth brought on by declining net international migration and falling birth rates.

That marked the start of a prolonged period of below-average growth.

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