Monthly Musings on Student Loans, Future of AI
Jun 04, 2025 07:14AM ● By David Dykes
Housing Units: Jasper County, South Carolina, Nation’s Fastest-Growing
Jasper County, South Carolina, was the nation’s fastest-growing county in terms of housing units: its housing stock increased by 8.4 percent between 2023 and 2024, according to the United States Census Bureau.
That was followed by Brunswick County, North Carolina (6.4 percent); Burnet County, Texas (6.3 percent); Caldwell County, Texas (5.7 percent); and Custer County, South Dakota (5.4 percent).
Elsewhere, Census officials said cities of all sizes grew on average from 2023 to 2024 with Southern and Western cities experiencing accelerated growth.
Topping the list of fastest-growing cities was Princeton, Texas, with a remarkable 30.6 percent growth rate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 estimates.
New York City, Houston, and Los Angeles saw the greatest numeric gains.
In 2024, the Northeast experienced population growth after years of steady decline, with rates ranging from an average growth of 0.1 percent in cities and towns with fewer than 5,000 people (a shift from the 0.3 percent average decline in 2023) to 1 percent average growth in cities with populations of 50,000 or more — five times higher than their growth rate during 2023.
The Midwest showed modest population growth, with average rates varying by population size. Places with fewer than 5,000 residents saw an average growth of 0.1 percent. Those with populations between 5,000 and 9,999 recorded a 0.6 percent average increase, while cities and towns with 10,000 to 49,999 residents grew by an average of 0.7 percent — the same rate observed in places with populations of 50,000 or more.
The South experienced the highest average population growth of any region. Cities and towns in the South with populations between 5,000 and 9,999 residents experienced the highest average increase of 1.6 percent. Those with populations ranging from 10,000 to 49,999 also saw an average growth rate at 1.6 percent. In contrast, places with population below 5,000 recorded a much lower average growth of 0.6 percent.
The West also showed population growth, where cities and towns with fewer than 5,000 people saw a modest average increase of 0.5 percent, while larger cities and towns with populations between 10,000 and 49,999 recorded an average growth rate of 1 percent — the same rate observed in places with 50,000 or more residents.
Meanwhile, the United States continues to be a nation of small towns. In 2024, 75 percent of its 19,479 incorporated places — 14,603 cities — had populations under 5,000. Only 4.2 percent (817 cities) had populations of 50,000 or more, and 1.8 percent (342 cities) had populations of 100,000 or more.
Alarm Over Student Loans? Don’t Panic
While student loan debt continues to comprise only a modest portion of total household liabilities in dollar terms, the end of legacy-pandemic payment accommodations has triggered a measurable uptick in delinquencies, according to Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein and economic analyst Jeremiah Kohl.
The three said the resumption of student loan payments is a burden for specific households and raises red flags for future consumer resilience in the event the labor market or credit conditions soften.
That said, they add the number of borrowers who are delinquent is still lower than it was pre-pandemic, and the relatively concentrated nature of student loan debt suggests it won't derail the consumer on its own.
In an economics report in May, the Well Fargo economics team said:
· Student loans, while still only the third-largest category of U.S. household debt, remain outsized in terms of policy sensitivity and borrower impact. Interest accrual and loan payments on student loans were paused for over three years during the pandemic. These payments have since restarted, and delinquencies have moved closer to the pre-pandemic norm. The resumption of student loan payments presents a burden for specific households and comes at a time when the overall consumer has grown more vulnerable, but it is not likely to derail the consumer on its own.
· As of Q1-2025, there was $1.63 trillion in outstanding student loan debt, up slightly from the quarter prior. The debt category now trails only mortgages ($12.8T) and auto loans ($1.64T), having surpassed credit card debt and HELOCs over a decade ago. Even as student loan debt has grown, it's still only a moderate share of household liabilities, representing just 9 percent of the total $18.2 trillion in U.S. household debt outstanding today. That said, student loan debt represents a significant liability for a subset of U.S. households. Both the number of borrowers by age group and the largest share of outstanding student loan debt are primarily concentrated in younger cohorts.
· The student loan moratorium that began in March 2020 and extended through September 2023 paused payments and interest accrual on federally-held student loans. It also offered three years of suppressed delinquency metrics. But as of September 2024, the landscape shifted with the expiration of the 12-month “on-ramp” period. The “on-ramp” was a period designated by the Biden administration to give borrowers added protections in which missed payments were not counted against credit nor reported to credit bureaus.
The New York Fed data show that 8.2 percent of student loan balances were transitioning into early delinquency (30+ days past-due) as of the first quarter, a stark jump from sub-1 percent levels observed throughout the moratorium period.
Yet this figure represents what is essentially a “return to normal” to some extent. In the decade prior to the onset of the pandemic, student loan delinquencies averaged 9.5 percent.
For context, auto loan balances transitioning to delinquency currently stand at 8.0 percent and credit card delinquencies sit the highest at 8.8 percent, both above pre-Covid levels.
Despite the jump in student-loan delinquencies, the number of borrowers past due is lower than pre-pandemic, even if the share is a tad higher. It is not so much the jump in delinquencies that is disconcerting so much as it is evidence that for many student loan borrowers they're faced again with the challenged financial reality that comes with loan payments.
Notably, this rise in student loan distress is concentrated among borrowers with lower credit scores. Borrowers with subprime credit scores accounted for 3.2 million, or over half, of all newly delinquent accounts.
Calculations from the New York Fed show that the reporting of these delinquent student loan payments hinders credit access, as evidenced by credit scores dropping precipitously across the credit score spectrum for borrowers who were in serious delinquency (90+ days).
Further, this burden is not felt uniformly. According to Department of Education figures, over 50 percent of borrowers owe less than $20,000, but 40 percent of total student debt is held by borrowers owing $100,000 or more, often those with graduate-level education.
The sharp uptick in delinquencies could eventually weaken credit scores, raise individual borrowing costs, and heighten financial uncertainty among certain households of consumers.
If the labor market remains robust and wage growth continues, these households may adjust. But any meaningful slowdown in employment or tightening in credit could amplify the student loan drag on broader consumer behavior.
In short, the outlook appears stable for now, but in a somewhat unfortunate matter of timing, the consumer is on shakier footing today than they would have been if payments had resumed when they were first slated to do so in 2023.
AI Future
South Carolina took a bold step recently in shaping its artificial intelligence future as state leaders, industry innovators, and AI experts gathered for an AI symposium during the annual South Carolina Research Authority Summit.
The event was initiated by Rep. Jeff Bradley, R-Beaufort, chairman of the South Carolina House Regulations, Administrative Procedures, Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity Committee, and hosted by Bob Quinn, president and CEO of SCRA, in collaboration with AI product and tech leader Alka Roy.
Sponsored by the State of South Carolina, the half-day symposium brought together public, private, and academic leaders to explore artificial intelligence’s impact across manufacturing, supply chain, workforce development, and public policy.
Alka Roy, founder of RI Labs and The Responsible Innovation Project, offered practical strategies in her keynote, “Beyond Hype: How to Build an AI Strategy that Works for You.”
She then moderated a high-impact panel with Rep. Bradley; Quinn; Susie Shannon, SC Council on Competitiveness; Marcus Branner, BMW Manufacturing Co.; and Matthew Krugh, Clemson University, who shared initiatives that are underway in South Carolina.
“AI tools are being released every day, and we want to make sure South Carolina is using them to build a stronger state, while putting the right safeguards in place,” said Bradley.
The event wrapped up with collaborative roundtable discussions regarding real-world challenges and recommendations across three core areas: AI in Industry, AI in Public Policy, and AI in Workforce Development and Training.
“Everyone is looking for practical ways to navigate AI,” Roy said. “We designed this symposium to help South Carolina’s leaders continue to shape their future with AI, grounded in what matters most to their community and economy.”
A forthcoming AI symposium report, made available through the new AI Symposium HUB, will share key findings and actionable recommendations from the roundtables and post-event surveys.